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College Football: Week 2 AP Poll
Wednesday, September 06, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

In the early weeks of the season, a lot of teams play the cupcakes of their schedule so there usually isn’t much movement in the polls. We did have some great games in the first week of the season nonetheless.

Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 1 results.bmp

So how’d I do in my first try? The two most glaring differences are due to two games where I picked the loser. First, the Fighting Irish squeaked one out in Atlanta downing the Yellow Jackets 14-10. The officials were out to get me on that pick – a questionable helmet to helmet call enabled the Irish to continue the drive that would eventually win it for them. But the AP voters punished Notre Dame for the close finish and dropped them to a tie with Auburn at #4. This isn’t too far off from the #9 spot I had predicted the Irish to fall to in defeat.

The second loser pick was Cal over Tennessee. What was I thinking?! I thought Cal had the manpower to come into Neyland Stadium and take care of business against a Tennessee team trying to pick itself up after last year’s disappointing season. Not only was I wrong but I was very wrong. The final score was 35-18 but that isn’t even indicative of how lopsided this contest was. That’ll teach me to take any Pac-10 team besides USC!

Besides those two games, my poll was pretty close. I correctly picked all of the other games (not too hard in Week 1, I admit!) and came close to the way the teams were ranked. So let’s take a look at Week 2 and what the poll will look like a week from today.

There will only be four ranked teams that lose this weekend and the most notable of these will be the Ohio State Buckeyes. Week 1 against Northern Illinois exposed the Buckeyes’ weakness on defense. You can’t lose nine starters on D and expect to carry your #1 ranking too long. If this game was played in Columbus, and a little later in the season, my prediction may be different.

Losing on the road to the #2 team in the nation usually doesn’t drop you too far in the rankings so the Buckeyes will only drop to #6. Notre Dame will ride their emotions all the way home from Atlanta and start to look more capable on offense while beating Penn State by a wider margin than they had beaten Georgia Tech. This won’t be enough to vault the Irish ahead of USC who has a bye this week, but thanks to Ohio State’s loss, it will be enough to land them at #3. Meanwhile, Joe Pa’s Nittany Lions will fall to #25.

In the upset of the weekend, Steve Spurrier will continue his winning ways against the Georgia Bulldogs at home in Columbia. The Gamecocks’ only loss in the SEC East last year was against Georgia and this was only by two points in Athens. The Dawgs are not as good as they were last year because of uncertainty at QB and the O-Line while the Cocks are better than the 2005 version. This will send UGA to a #20 ranking and bring South Carolina onto the list at #24.

The only other loss in the top 25 this week will be those horrendous Cal Golden Bears. After suffering a devastating loss on the road, Jeff Tedford will bring his team home to Berkeley only to lose again to a Minnesota team good enough to take them down. This will remove Cal from the rankings altogether only two weeks removed from a top 10 ranking.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like:

Wk 2 prediction.bmp



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