TFV Season 1

My Voice
Subscribe for Free
Member Login
Login
Register
      Search
   Articles

College Football: Week 4 AP Poll
Tuesday, September 19, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

What a great weekend for college football!! I’ve heard some say this was the best day of high-profile matchups we’ve had in over a decade. I’ve also heard some say that the list of matchups we had this past Saturday was a better slate of games than you’ll get on New Year’s Day.

I was very surprised to see the smack-down Notre Dame received at the hands of Lloyd Carr and his Michigan Wolverines. Not many people outside of Ann Arbor could see that one coming. I’d dare say that many in Ann Arbor were expecting a blowout in the opposite direction as well. So, I don’t feel bad about missing that pick. I took Notre Dame in that one but now it looks like Brady Quinn’s Heisman campaign is over.

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 2 results.bmp

Where else did I go wrong this week? I took Florida State to beat Clemson at home in Bowden Bowl VIII. I was thinking FSU’s offense would finally show up and begin their quest to repeat as ACC Champions in convincing fashion. I figured Clemson’s crushing defeat in Boston last week would carry over for the Tigers but I couldn’t have been more wrong. The Tigers have pushed themselves back in the running for their first ACC Atlantic Division title.

I also owe a certain group of people an apology. Last week I said, “With Michael Bush, the Cardinals may have been able to keep their offense on the field long enough to outlast the Canes. Without him, they don’t stand a chance.” Wow, I don’t think I’ve been more wrong in any pick this year. Is Louisville really that good or is Miami really that bad? We could find out the answer to that question in the same weekend. On Thursday, Nov. 2 the Cardinals host West Virginia and two days later, the Hurricanes host Virginia Tech.

I also went wrong on my Iowa – Iowa State pick. The Hawkeyes had lost six of their last eight to their in-state rivals and did not look good in Syracuse last week. Drew Tate was missing for that Syracuse game, but the Orangemen are so bad that Iowa should have still won by three touchdowns. All of those things pointed me in the Cyclones’ direction, but maybe I should have figured the Hawkeyes were due in this rivalry series.

I also went wrong on my TCU – Texas Tech pick. I honestly didn’t have anything to go on with this pick, I just went with the BCS team over the non-BCS team. I should have known better. An argument can be made that ALL BCS conferences are down this year…..except the SEC, that is. The ACC is WAY down. The Big XII is down. The Big Ten is down (but climbing back to respectability with Michigan’s win over Notre Dame) and the Pac-10 is probably right where it’s been for the past couple of years – and that’s closer to the bottom of the six BCS conferences than it is to the top. If there’s another game between two ranked teams and one’s from a BCS conference and the other’s from a non-BCS conference, I think I know where I’ll be leaning.

Usually I don’t sing my own praises, but at least I picked a lot of the big games correctly. I was right about Auburn beating visiting LSU. I was right about Florida winning in Knoxville. I was right about Oregon beating Oklahoma, though I admit the refs really helped me out with that pick. Guess I’m even for the year because I feel like the refs were against me in my Georgia Tech over Notre Dame pick in the first week of the season. I was also flawless on all of the other games because there weren’t any huge upsets outside of South Bend, IN.

So what’s going to happen this weekend? This coming weekend is almost as bad as this past weekend was good. There are only two games between ranked teams and neither of these is really a battle of heavyweights like we had this past Saturday. Probably the game of the week is in the Pac-10: Arizona State @ Cal. I’m going to pick the visitors in that contest because I just think that Tennessee exposed Cal and that a decent team like the Sun Devils will be able to exploit those weaknesses. If Cal can turn back Arizona State this week, maybe I’ll stop punishing the Golden Bears in my picks.

The other game between ranked teams is Penn State @ Ohio State. Do you think revenge will be on the minds of Jim Tressel and his Buckeyes? Last year, Penn State was Ohio State’s only conference loss but this couldn’t keep the Buckeyes out of the BCS because they were selected as an at-large team by the Fiesta Bowl committee. This year, the Buckeyes will leave no doubt that they deserve a trip to a BCS bowl, and probably to the National Championship game as they take apart the Nittany Lions.

Aside from those two games, I predict all favored teams will win. Usually, I’ll throw an upset or two or three in there, but this week’s matchups are such snooze-fests that I can’t possibly do it. I’m sure one or two upsets will actually happen that will raise the eyebrows of college football fans everywhere, but I’m not going to go predicting specific upsets to happen because I just don’t see any that jump out at me as good picks. Take a look at the opponents column of the table above and you’ll see what I mean.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:

Wk 4 prediction.bmp

 



Rating:
Comments:
Save

Current Rating:

trash talk

   trashtalk

Copyright © 2007 - The Fan's Voice - All Rights Reserved