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College Football: Week 5 AP Poll
Tuesday, September 26, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

This past weekend didn’t produce much noise in the world of college football. The weekend before was filled with so many huge matchups that the media was trying to name it. “Separation Saturday” and “Shakeout Saturday” were titles that I heard. This past weekend didn’t have any catchy name attached to it and it didn’t produce any huge upsets. Still, a ho-hum day in college football beats a day at work any time!

If you go by rankings, the game of the week was #20 Arizona State @ #22 Cal - not exactly the battle of heavyweights that you’ll be telling your grandkids about. It may have been the only game that was difficult to predict so of course I picked it wrong. You gamblers may want to start reading this article so you can pick opposite of me and make some money. I promise to stop punishing Cal for their loss in Knoxville from now on!

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 4 results.bmp

Judging by the excitement of the game itself, the true game of the week was Notre Dame @ Michigan State. Notre Dame made a huge comeback to win back their pride in East Lansing. I don’t believe any flags were planted this year – if you don’t know what I’m talking about, look up any article written about the game between the Irish and the Spartans in South Bend last year. It wasn’t looking good deep into the game for me, but like I’ve heard on the radio for the last couple of days; “the Spartans folded up like a tent like they always do” giving me a correct pick in the game.

Comparing my predicted poll and the actual poll, this was probably my best week so far. The only differences in the top 20 are the bad Arizona State pick and a few teams that flip-flopped with other teams from the previous poll like UGA and LSU. I believe that after the display that Georgia put up against Colorado, they should have dropped further than one spot. I would’ve never guessed that a team that had lost at home to Montana State three weeks before would come all the way across the country and almost beat the Dawgs in Athens. Montana State lost to Chadron State following their win in Boulder, by the way. Who’s Chadron State?!

Spots 20-25 were bad for me this week. Boston College’s road loss to N.C. State was the biggest upset of the weekend. Similar to the Georgia game, I wouldn’t have thought that BC would come down to Raleigh and lose to a team that had lost at home to Akron two weeks ago and followed that up with a road loss to Southern Miss. It seemed like BC was gaining momentum from their double OT win over Clemson, but that mo’ is certainly over-with now.

I also thought Alabama could pull off the road win over Arkansas and my plan would have worked if it wasn’t for that pesky kicker! (Scooby Doo reference). What’s funny about my pick of Miami at #25 is that because the Hurricanes had a bye week, their record is still 1-2.  The previous week, the Canes were the highest listed team in the “Others Receiving Votes” section of the poll. With BC and Arizona State dropping from the poll, you’d guess the Canes would have moved in. I suppose the voters didn’t have the heart to rank a sub-.500 team in the Top 25.

So what’s going to happen this weekend? This coming weekend looks to be as uneventful as this past weekend. Once again, there are only two games between ranked teams. Probably the game of the week is in the Big Ten: Ohio State @ Iowa. I’m going to pick the visitors in that one and I also think this one could get ugly. Buckeyes win big in Iowa City!

The other game between ranked teams is Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech. Do you think revenge will be on the minds of Chan Gailey and his Yellow Jackets? Last year, Virginia Tech destroyed Georgia Tech 51-7 and scored in all three aspects of the game: offense, defense, and special teams. The same will be true this weekend, but without Marcus Vick, Darryl Tapp, and Jimmy Williams this time it will be a much closer score. Without any upsets ahead of them, the Hokies will still be held out of the top ten even after their biggest win of the season to date.

As with those two games, I predict all favored teams will win the other games. Hey, it worked pretty well for me last week! BC re-appears at the bottom thanks to the spot vacated by Georgia Tech.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:

Wk 5 prediction.bmp



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