College Football: Week 7 AP Poll
Wednesday, October 11, 2006What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.
Fans of college football were treated to a very entertaining weekend this past weekend. The weekend had its share of upsets and also provided some exciting games between highly ranked teams. Maybe we can call Arkansas defeating Auburn in Auburn the upset of the year. The game was lopsided but not the way most people expected, yours truly included. Knowing that USC had been able to hit the half century mark against Arkansas in Fayetteville a few weeks earlier, there was no way to see this upset coming.
Arkansas was unranked before this game but climbed to #17 in a hurry. Beating the #2 ranked team in the land on their home turf will do that for you. Auburn fell all the way to #11 and possibly out of the national title picture. But before you write off the Tigers too quickly, know that a win over the current #2 team this week – the Florida Gators – puts Tommy Tuberville’s team right back into the discussion.
Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

In an important jump in the rankings, Urban Meyer’s Gators leap-frogged over USC to take the #2 spot. The Gators looked impressive in their home win over LSU while the Trojans squeaked out a close one against Washington. Had someone reminded Ty Willingham of the new rule that the game clock starts running after the umpire has placed the ball on the field, the Huskies may have pulled the second biggest upset of the day. Even though I did correctly pick the Gators to beat LSU, I didn’t predict that they’d jump the Trojans.
My upset pick of the week turned out to be right as the N.C. State Wolfpack took down the #17 Florida State Seminoles in Raleigh. The only problem with my upset pick of the week is that it wasn’t the upset of the week as I mentioned above. Regardless, the loss took the Seminoles out of the rankings. It’s the first time since January of 1979 that both Florida State and Miami are not ranked. Wow, that’s impressive!
On top of picking the Gators and Wolfpack, I also correctly picked Texas to beat Oklahoma, Tennessee to beat Georgia, and Cal to beat Oregon. Pretty good if I do say so myself. I did lose on my Missouri – Texas Tech pick and got the order wrong on the bottom of the poll, but overall I did pretty well.
This coming weekend is not looking like one to cancel all of your plans for. The game of the week is definitely Florida at Auburn and I like Auburn in this one. The Gators are on a roll, but I see Auburn playing with a lot of emotion in front of their home crowd. Florida’s schedule is just too tough to get through undefeated and this could be their toughest remaining test. If I’m wrong on this one, look for Florida to be double digit favorites in every remaining game. If I’m right, I don’t think the voters will punish the Gators too harshly and they’ll only fall to #8.
There aren’t too many games of interest beyond that one, but the Thursday night game which pits Virginia Tech against Boston College on Chestnut Hill should be a good one. I like the Hokies in this game. It’s the first game of the year where the Hokies will have their entire roster healthy and active and BC’s kicker won’t be dressed due to a violation of team rules. This may not factor in too much against anyone else, but against Beamer Ball it will.
Another game of interest is the Michigan at Penn State game. I like Michigan to continue their winning ways but this could be closer than they’d like. Without their leading receiver – who is also the Big Ten’s leading receiver - the offense will have a harder time rolling up all those points. Mario Manningham is out after knee surgery so I think Penn State makes this close. Because of the close score, the Wolverines will need another week to jump USC in the poll.
Upset of the week? I don’t have one. All of the other games involving ranked teams will play out as expected but keep your eye on that Louisville – Cincinnati game. The Bearcats have been battle tested this year with trips to Columbus and Blacksburg, so they won’t be scared of the Cardinals. They even gave the Buckeyes and the Hokies some of their biggest tests to date. I see Louisville winning close at home but wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.
Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:
