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College Football: Week 9 AP Poll
Tuesday, October 24, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

I probably had my best week to date as far as picks go. I’ll admit that the games weren’t extremely difficult to pick because there weren’t many big games but of all the games of the weekend, I only missed on three. Coming in, the games of the week were Texas @ Nebraska and Georgia Tech @ Clemson. One of those games lived up to its billing but I was right in my predictions on both.

Nebraska almost proved me wrong and had Texas on the ropes until Terrance Nunn fumbled away to the Longhorns which led to a walk-on kicker’s game winning field goal. The loss sent the Huskers to #20 when I predicted it would send them to #22. I didn’t expect the score to be as close so congratulations to Nebraska for a great game.

It seems like Georgia Tech did not even show up in Clemson Saturday night. I expected a much closer game, but Clemson’s running backs each had career days rushing for over 300 yards as a team. The Tigers also held superstar Calvin Johnson to zero catches. The Tigers may be the best team in the ACC right now, but unless Boston College loses another game, it will be the Eagles taking the trip to Jacksonville on Dec. 2nd.

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 8 results.bmp

I didn’t expect a close score in Knoxville and Tennessee was punished in the poll for not beating Alabama by enough. While I did expect a close score in South Bend, I thought the Fighting Irish would maintain their #10 spot due to a close game in Clemson. The latter did not happen and the Tigers were rewarded in the poll as they jumped both Cal and Notre Dame.

One of my three losses occurred when Oregon dug themselves too deep a hole in Pullman. The Ducks scored 20 fourth quarter points but unfortunately for them, their deficit was 24 points before that started. Washington State held off the Ducks comeback and probably ended Oregon’s hopes for a Pac-10 title. My second loss was taking Pitt over Rutgers. I officially believe in Rutgers now and can admit that I’m going to be rooting for them the rest of the way. This is a great story in college football this year.

My last wrong prediction involving ranked teams was taking Florida State at home over Boston College. The state of the Florida State program is really bad right now and the Eagles now have the inside track to Jacksonville. I honestly didn’t see Boston College as having that good a team coming in to the year so congratulations to them for a great season so far.

So what’s going to happen this weekend? There is only one game involving two ranked teams this week: Oklahoma @ Missouri. I admit I don’t know much about Mizzou this year, but I’ll take a team on a roll like they’re on. I’m not sure that Oklahoma is that good without Adrian Peterson.

I will go out on a limb here and say that there will be no other upsets in the top 25 this week, which may be an upset in itself. There are only a handful of games where I see a possibility of an unranked team beating a ranked one. Maybe Texas Tech can hang with Texas in Lubbock and maybe South Carolina can hang with Tennessee in Columbia, but officially I won’t predict an upset in either one. I could see Virginia Tech taking Clemson out of the ACC picture altogether at home on a Thursday night, but I predict Clemson will win by more than 2 touchdowns.

Maybe Navy could shock Notre Dame, but I just don’t see it. The only other possibility is Miami beating the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. The way Georgia Tech played against Clemson tells me that Miami should win this game with all of their players back from suspension, but I think the Jackets turn it around and cement their spot as the ACC Coastal Division representative in Jacksonville.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:

Wk 9 prediction.bmp



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