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College Football: Week 11 AP Poll
Wednesday, November 08, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that it was strange that Rutgers and Wake Forest were ranked at the simultaneously for the first time I can remember. Not only have both the Scarlet Knights and Demon Deacons stayed ranked ever since, but we’ve now had our “Game of the Week” played by two Big East teams on a Thursday night. What has this world come to?

Last week I predicted the Mountaineers to take out Louisville and was very wrong on that one. Louisville continues to surprise me without one of their star players, Michael Bush. For the record, I believe the Cardinals should get a chance to go to the National Championship Game if they run the table. I believe if a team in a BCS conference goes undefeated and they are one of only two teams undefeated left, they should go over all one-loss teams. The question is will the Cards stay undefeated long enough to stay in the hunt? Well, you’ll have to read on for that answer.

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 10 results.bmp

I was wrong about West Virginia and I was wrong on a couple of my other upset picks. Arkansas stayed in the hunt for the SEC West title with a win against South Carolina and Oklahoma left College Station with two losses (still) on their record. I had a hunch that Clemson would let down after their crushing loss at Virginia Tech (see last week’s article), but I still thought they’d be good enough to beat Maryland at home.

At least I picked LSU to go into Knoxville and take down the Vols as well as Wake Forest defending their home turf against Boston College. You may not call LSU over Tennessee an upset, but the Tigers were ranked lower in the poll so that’s what I’m using to define it that way. Wake continues to impress and could possibly win the ACC. I’m sure this is exactly how John Swofford dreamed it up when he expanded the conference two and a half years ago.

Though I correctly picked LSU to win, I thought the Tigers would be more rewarded than they were in reality. I had them at #9 and they sit at #12 now. Looking at this comparison between my predictions and the actual results, this was probably my most inaccurate poll prediction of the year. Let’s see if I can do better this week.

There are three games between ranked teams this weekend. Once again, we start the list of big games on Thursday night between two undefeated Big East teams. Louisville takes to the road after their big win over West Virginia and tries to show it belongs in the national title discussion by playing Rutgers. Unfortunately for all you Big East haters out there, Louisville will win this game. Rutgers has been impressive this year, but they would not be 8-0 in the Big East of 2003. Say what you will about Miami’s drop-off, but the Scarlet Knights would not be sitting here on November 8 at 8-0 if they’d had to play the Hurricanes, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. Perhaps with that schedule Louisville would be still undefeated, so I like the Cardinals to keep things rolling.

How about the other big games? Arkansas will stay in the running for the SEC West with a home win over Tennessee. I originally had the Vols picked in this game because I like them to rebound after the home loss to LSU, but I think the suspensions that Coach Fulmer handed out this week will be too much to handle against a good team on a roll. I also like USC to keep winning and they will not let Oregon get in their way. The Trojans are still very much in the national title discussion and I don’t see Oregon being able to stop them like their in-state rivals were able to do.

Upset of the week? West Virginia suffers a let-down game against Cincinnati and loses to the Bearcats at home. As I’ve said earlier, Cincy is a good team who has been battle tested. They’ve looked good against Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Louisville. They’re traveling to Morgantown at the perfect time. Also look for Michigan and Ohio State to shape up in their preparation for next week’s big game. Their games at Indiana and Northwestern respectively won’t be close like last week’s games were.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:

Wk 11 prediction.bmp



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