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College Football: Week 14 Poll
Wednesday, November 29, 2006

What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.

It’s been a great season so far and we’re almost done now. We now go from “Rivalry Week #2” to “Rivalry Week #3 / Conference Championship Weekend”. The Big East and Pac-10 have recently started scheduling games during the first week of December in lieu of a conference championship game. This week, we’ll see rivalry games like USC vs. UCLA and Cal vs. Stanford.

Maybe more important than any single game this past week was the fact that USC jumped Michigan in the poll. Remember that the AP Poll no longer factors into the BCS Standings, but also remember that the AP still crowns its own national champion. We may not be rid of the split national champions yet, folks. I correctly predicted that USC would easily beat Notre Dame but I thought the pollsters would wait a week to move the Trojans ahead of the Wolverines. I guess the victory was impressive enough for the voters to take the initiative this week. None of this will matter if UCLA can pull the huge upset this week in the Rose Bowl.

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each team to the table.

Wk 13 results.bmp

The highest ranked team to lose this past weekend was the Arkansas Razorbacks, an upset I correctly predicted. Right behind that game was an upset maybe no one predicted. West Virginia may have ruined any chance to win the Big East by losing at home to South Florida. It would take a lot to get WVU back into the mix.

Another huge upset was in a rivalry game: Texas lost to Texas A&M at home. The next upset loss also happened in a rivalry game: Georgia Tech lost to Georgia. This was another “upset” that really wasn’t an upset depending on who you listen to. While the AP Poll considered this an upset, Las Vegas didn’t as the Bulldogs were favored at home. These upsets are a great example of exactly what makes rivalry games so much fun and I was wrong in predicting both games.

I was right on the rest of the picks except for BC over Miami and Clemson over South Carolina. I was honestly very surprised by these two results. This is why I don’t gamble.

So how about this week? The slate of games is much smaller as most teams’ regular season is over. I’ll say that USC routs UCLA for the second year in a row. Pete Carroll’s record at USC is just mind boggling. I don’t know that I’ve seen a dynasty like this since I’ve been following college football and all indications are that it will continue for years and years. USC’s success almost makes you sick.

Since I’ve been associating Rutgers with Wake Forest all season, I’ll discuss them together. Both are just one game away from winning their respective conference and going to a BCS bowl game. I’ll regretfully predict that this will happen for neither team. Wake Forest will lose a close ACC Championship Game to Georgia Tech and Rutgers will lose by at least 7 points in Morgantown to West Virginia. If I’m wrong, maybe the two teams will face each other in the Orange Bowl.

I love upsets, and conference championship games seem to be full of them. Since Arkansas lost last week at home to LSU, many people are writing them off in the SEC Championship Game against Florida. “Not so fast, my ”…..I’m not going to say it. The Razorbacks run over the Gators and into the Sugar Bowl. It won’t be upsets all around though, because Oklahoma will beat Nebraska in a close, low scoring game.

Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from today:

Wk 14 prediction.bmp



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