College Football: Week 14 Poll
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
What will the AP Poll look like next week? I’ve got the
answer for you. Each week we’ll be predicting what each ranked team will do in
the upcoming games and how that will impact their rankings. Then, we’ll compare
these predictions against what actually happened as the season progresses.
It’s been a great season so far and we’re almost done now.
We now go from “Rivalry Week #2” to “Rivalry Week #3 / Conference Championship
Weekend”. The Big East and Pac-10 have recently started scheduling games during
the first week of December in lieu of a conference championship game. This
week, we’ll see rivalry games like USC vs. UCLA and Cal vs. Stanford.
Maybe more important than any single game this past week was
the fact that USC jumped Michigan
in the poll. Remember that the AP Poll no longer factors into the BCS
Standings, but also remember that the AP still crowns its own national
champion. We may not be rid of the split national champions yet, folks. I
correctly predicted that USC would easily beat Notre Dame but I thought the
pollsters would wait a week to move the Trojans ahead of the Wolverines. I
guess the victory was impressive enough for the voters to take the initiative
this week. None of this will matter if UCLA can pull the huge upset this week
in the Rose Bowl.
Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a
table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against
how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added this week’s opponent for each
team to the table.

The highest ranked team to lose this past weekend was the
Arkansas Razorbacks, an upset I correctly predicted. Right behind that game was
an upset maybe no one predicted. West Virginia
may have ruined any chance to win the Big East by losing at home to South Florida. It would take a lot to get WVU back into
the mix.
Another huge upset was in a rivalry game: Texas lost to Texas A&M at home. The
next upset loss also happened in a rivalry game: Georgia Tech lost to Georgia. This
was another “upset” that really wasn’t an upset depending on who you listen to.
While the AP Poll considered this an upset, Las Vegas didn’t as the Bulldogs were favored
at home. These upsets are a great example of exactly what makes rivalry games
so much fun and I was wrong in predicting both games.
I was right on the rest of the picks except for BC over Miami and Clemson over South Carolina. I was honestly very
surprised by these two results. This is why I don’t gamble.
So how about this week? The slate of games is much smaller
as most teams’ regular season is over. I’ll say that USC routs UCLA for the
second year in a row. Pete Carroll’s record at USC is just mind boggling. I
don’t know that I’ve seen a dynasty like this since I’ve been following college
football and all indications are that it will continue for years and years.
USC’s success almost makes you sick.
Since I’ve been associating Rutgers with Wake Forest
all season, I’ll discuss them together. Both are just one game away from
winning their respective conference and going to a BCS bowl game. I’ll
regretfully predict that this will happen for neither team. Wake Forest
will lose a close ACC Championship Game to Georgia Tech and Rutgers will lose
by at least 7 points in Morgantown to West Virginia. If I’m
wrong, maybe the two teams will face each other in the Orange Bowl.
I love upsets, and conference championship games seem to be
full of them. Since Arkansas lost last week at
home to LSU, many people are writing them off in the SEC Championship Game
against Florida.
“Not so fast, my ”…..I’m not going to say it. The Razorbacks run over the
Gators and into the Sugar Bowl. It won’t be upsets all around though, because Oklahoma will beat Nebraska
in a close, low scoring game.
Here’s what the entire poll will look like a week from
today:
