College Football: Final AP Poll
Wednesday, December 13, 2006What will the Final AP Poll look like? I’ve got the answer for you. Each week throughout the past season I’ve been predicting what each ranked team would do in their upcoming games and how that would impact their rankings. Then, I compared these predictions against what actually happened as the season progressed. I got a lot right and got a lot wrong, but overall I think I did a pretty good job.
We now turn our attention to the Bowl Season: “the most wonderful time of the year” as ESPN likes to name it. I know this is off the usual subject, but one thing I’d like to note is that when it comes to playoffs, we aren’t going to see them come all at once folks. We need to take baby steps towards that system and this year we are taking one of those baby steps by adding an extra bowl game on January 8th. Eventually, this extra game may turn into a “plus one” game which pits winners of two other bowls against each other. We’re not that far from what we all want, so don’t get too frustrated.
There weren’t too many games to pick from this week so I may have had my worst week of picks of all season long. UCLA shocked USC and honestly I don’t feel too bad about that pick. I did pick Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Hawaii – all losers. Sometimes you have to pick the upsets and Florida proved me wrong by showing that they should be considered for the national title. I did pick Louisville, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Cal but those winners were not hard picks to make.
Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today. I’ve also added the Bowl Game opponent for each team to the table.

I’ll admit it – when it comes to college football, I root for chaos and I’m going to make the following picks based on what I’m rooting for. Proponents of a playoff system should root for the BCS to fail every year. The best way for that to happen would be for us to end up with a split National Championship again. When USC and LSU split the title in 2003, it was great for the future of the sport. I want that to happen again.
So, Florida is going to squeak by Ohio State in a low scoring game to win the BCS Championship. On top of that, Michigan is going to crush USC in the Rose Bowl to jump Florida and win the AP National Championship. This would force all of the talking heads to present the scenario that we should have had Ohio State-Florida a week earlier and moved Florida-Michigan to Jan. 8th. If this happens enough times, I think it could happen. It wouldn’t require much of a change to the current system.
I don’t think Florida over Ohio State is that far-fetched. I believe that from top to bottom, the SEC was superior to the Big Ten this year. If you compare Ohio State’s schedule to Florida’s you’ll see a big discrepancy between the two. Florida is just simply more battle tested. A lot of my picks go against the Big Ten because of this, but if there’s one conference that could be weaker in my perception it’s the Pac-10. That’s why I don’t think Michigan crushing USC is that far-fetched either.
Staying with my Big Ten bashing, I think Arkansas will beat Wisconsin easily. It will be another SEC over Big Ten bowl game and will prove my theory. The next highest ranked team to lose will be Boise State. Unlike 2004 when Utah got to play Pitt in a BCS Bowl, Boise State has to play Oklahoma. This game will not be pretty.
Notre Dame will get pummeled for their ninth straight bowl loss. Bowl committees will continue to invite the Irish to bowls that they wouldn’t qualify for if their name wasn’t Notre Dame and we will continue to get treated to lopsided, unwatchable games. Besides the lack of a playoff, this is college football’s second largest weakness as a sport.
Louisville will beat Wake Forest easily which will give the Big East their second BCS Bowl win in a row. The ACC is not going to do very well this bowl season, so put your money down on those games. Oregon is going to remove BYU from the poll, Cal is going to beat Texas A&M by at least 10 points and Auburn is going to beat Nebraska in a close game.
Here’s what the entire poll will look like in its final edition:
