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College Football: Final AP Poll reviewed
Monday, January 15, 2007

Each week throughout the past season I’ve been predicting what each ranked team would do in their upcoming games and how that would impact their rankings. Then, I compared these predictions against what actually happened as the season progressed. I got a lot right and got a lot wrong, but overall I think I did a pretty good job.

The final poll reflects the results of all bowl games including the BCS National Championship Game. I’ll admit that I made my picks in that game and the Rose Bowl to follow the way that I was rooting in those games, but I really did feel like Florida was going to beat Ohio State. If you listen to talk radio or read the sports page or internet sites like this one, you’ve heard over and over how Ohio State’s schedule was weaker than Florida’s. I said it in the article I wrote before the bowls started.

So I was right about Florida winning but I don’t know anyone who expected a blowout like we saw last Monday night. We saw the total destruction of one of college football’s true powers in that game and possibly the beginnings of a dynasty coming out of Gainesville, FL. I was very wrong about the Rose Bowl. I bashed the Big Ten but for some reason overlooked that and said the Wolverines would crush USC. Not a good pick there, but as I said before I was rooting for a split national title and this was the only way that scenario would come to fruition.

Let’s see how the rest of my picks turned out. Below is a table showing how I had predicted the poll to look last week lined up against how it looks in reality today.

Final results.bmp

I’m going to quote myself from my last article: “Notre Dame will get pummeled for their ninth straight bowl loss. Bowl committees will continue to invite the Irish to bowls that they wouldn’t qualify for if their name wasn’t Notre Dame and we will continue to get treated to lopsided, unwatchable games. Besides the lack of a playoff, this is college football’s second largest weakness as a sport.” I don’t think there’s much more to say about how the Sugar Bowl turned out.

I have a friend who asked me if the ending of the Fiesta Bowl was the best ending in college football history. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that yes, it was. You may disagree and say that last year’s Rose Bowl between USC and Texas or 2003’s Fiesta Bowl between Ohio State and Miami each had more at stake, but I’m not so sure.

Those games had the national title on the line, but this year’s Fiesta Bowl may have meant more. Had Boise State gotten crushed by Oklahoma like most expected, we would have said that mid-major conferences have no business sending their teams to BCS Bowls. Perhaps that result would have actually made it more difficult for mid-major schools to be selected in the future. I’m not saying that this is absolutely true, just possibly true and if so, this game changed a lot about college football in the next couple of decades. This single game meant a LOT of money to a lot of schools.

Oh, I got that prediction wrong as well. I said the game would not be pretty and thought that Oklahoma was one of the nation’s best teams at bowl time. I’ve already explained that there was a lot riding on this game, but the game itself and especially the ending was one for the ages. Congratulations to Boise State in this year’s David and Goliath Bowl!

Where else was I right? I correctly picked Louisville, Auburn, West Virginia, Rutgers, Texas, Cal, Boston College, Oregon State, TCU, Hawaii, South Florida, and Maryland. With those last three teams, their wins weren’t enough to get them into the poll thanks to bowl wins by BYU, Georgia, and Penn State – all games I picked wrong. Where else was I wrong? Besides Michigan, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, and Oregon mentioned earlier, I also missed on Arkansas. I guess the Big Ten has to have something to brag about.

It’s been a great year and I truly cannot wait until next season. Congratulations to the Urban Meyer and the National Champion Florida Gators! See ya next year!



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